3
Border Fox
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 3 · OR 65
Woodbine · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength47%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Woodbine | Jalon Samuel | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-24 | Woodbine | Jalon Samuel | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-28 | Woodbine | Austin Adams | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-08-07 | Woodbine | Austin Adams | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Woodbine | Jalon Samuel | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Woodbine | Jalon Samuel | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 4-8 · tight 64/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength2%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 03/11/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 26/06/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 07/08/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 28/08/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 24/09/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 16/10/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |