IvyArcIvyArc
3

Quiet Intent

8yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 3 · OR 88

Woodbine · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m 110y

#5

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength48%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Woodbine 01/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 92 · 7f110y 123 · below its mark01/08/2025 · OR 92 par1/08C8OR 92C8 @ Woodbine 05/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 94 · 7f110y Gd 121 · beat its mark05/09/2025 · OR 94 parC8 @ Woodbine 19/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 90 · 7f110y Fm 125 · below its mark19/09/2025 · OR 90 par19/09C8OR 90C7 @ Woodbine 21/11/2025 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 101 · 7f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/11/2025 · OR 101 parC7 @ Fort Erie 06/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 86 · 7f Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/07/2026 · OR 86 par6/07C7OR 86C8 @ Fort Erie 27/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 76 · 1m Fm 124 · below its mark27/07/2026 · OR 76 parC5 @ Fort Erie 07/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 81 · 1m110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 81 par7/09C5OR 81C8 @ Woodbine 25/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 84 · 1m110y Fm 125 · below its mark25/09/2026 · OR 84 parC8 @ Woodbine 11/10/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 86 · 7f110y Fm 125 · below its mark11/10/2026 · OR 86 par11/10C8OR 86projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-11WoodbinePietro Moran?4th4th0
2026-09-25WoodbinePietro Moran?2nd2nd0
2026-09-07Fort EriePietro Moran?1st-3th+3
2026-07-27Fort ErieLuis Reyes?9th9th0
2026-07-06Fort ErieLuis Reyes?2nd1st+1
2026-06-28WoodbinePietro Moran?0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0821/117/0911/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 48/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength64%

Delivery trend -2.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/08/20254th9/276%70%-0.06
05/09/20251st9/153%100%+0.47
19/09/20255th12/137%33%-0.04
21/11/202513th33/10%0%0.00
06/07/20262nd9/276%83%+0.07
27/07/20269th10/382%11%-0.71
07/09/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
25/09/20262nd6/168%91%+0.22
11/10/20264th4/179%57%-0.22