4
True Shot
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 4 · OR 82
Woodbine · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Woodbine | Jeffrey Alderson | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-09-25 | Woodbine | Jeffrey Alderson | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Woodbine | Jeffrey Alderson | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Woodbine | Jeffrey Alderson | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Woodbine | Jeffrey Alderson | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Woodbine | Jeffrey Alderson | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 4-7 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength16%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 23/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 09/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 24/07/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 07/08/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 28/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 25/09/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 11/10/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |