3
Can't Tie Me Down
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 3 · OR 83
Woodbine · Race 7 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Woodbine | Keveh Nicholls | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Woodbine | Keveh Nicholls | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 4-4 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength38%
Delivery trend -34.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 20/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |