Connect The Empire

3yo Colt · 8-9 · Draw 1 · OR 77

Woodbine · Race 7 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 7f

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▬

Strength33%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +0.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-07	Woodbine	Romero Maragh	?	7th	6th	+1	3.6
2026-08-09	Woodbine	Sahin Civaci	?	5th	4th	+1	5.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 6-6 · tight 71/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength3%

Delivery trend -12.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
09/08/2026	5th	9/4	88%	43%	-0.45
07/09/2026	7th	8/1	58%	0%	-0.58