Proud Painter
3yo Colt · 8-9 · Draw 5 · OR 81
Woodbine · Race 7 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
52%
Place Prob
39%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Woodbine | Luis Contreras | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Woodbine | Luis Contreras | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-26 | Woodbine | Romero Maragh | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Woodbine | Romero Maragh | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Woodbine | Luis Contreras | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Woodbine | Luis Contreras | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 10/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 14/11/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 24/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 70% | +0.33 |
| 14/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 05/07/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 56% | -0.05 |
| 26/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 15/08/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 27/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |