Tranquillo
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 2 · OR 82
Woodbine · Race 7 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Woodbine | Jeffrey Alderson | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | Woodbine | Jeffrey Alderson | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Woodbine | Jeffrey Alderson | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Woodbine | Jeffrey Alderson | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Woodbine | Ryan Munger | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Churchill Downs | Tyler Gaffalione | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/03/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 07/05/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 07/06/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 23/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 11/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/9 | 98% | 67% | -0.31 |
| 09/10/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |