Lake Nasser
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 5 · OR 62
Woodbine · Race 9 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
26%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 7.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Woodbine | Ryan Munger | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Woodbine | Ryan Munger | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Woodbine | Pietro Moran | ? | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2026-07-05 | Woodbine | Eswan Flores | ? | 10th | 7th | +3 |
| 2026-06-14 | Woodbine | Eswan Flores | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-05-24 | Woodbine | Rafael Hernandez | ? | 11th | 8th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +7.0% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/2026 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 14/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 05/07/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/08/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 16/10/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |