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Killing Bid

4yo Gelding · 10-12

Auteuil · Prix Pierre Et Jean-marie Mercier Chase · 2m 1f 87y

#3

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Auteuil 15/03/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR - · 1m6f200y Hvy 14715/03C?C0 @ Auteuil 10/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 1m6f200y GS 150C0 @ Auteuil 27/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 2m1f87y Hvy 15027/09C?1 @ Auteuil 28/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 2m1f196y Hvy 1501 @ Auteuil 19/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 2m3f85y Ver 14319/0411 @ Auteuil 17/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 2m3f85y Sft 1473 @ Clairefontaine 15/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 2m2f86y Sft 14715/0732 @ Auteuil 17/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 2m1f87y Hvy 15417/092projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Auteuil24th4th0
2026-07-15Clairefontaine31st1st0
2026-05-17Auteuil16th6th0
2026-04-19Auteuil15th5th0
2026-03-28Auteuil13rd3rd0
2025-10-12Auteuil?0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0328/0315/0717/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 69/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength83%

Delivery trend -2.9% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/03/20255th14/126%69%+0.43
10/04/20254th9/276%73%-0.04
27/09/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
28/03/20263rd10/382%67%-0.16
19/04/20265th20/10%43%+0.43
17/05/20266th28/10%29%+0.29
15/07/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
17/09/20264th5/287%73%-0.14