2
Mon Marcel
4yo Gelding · 10-10
Auteuil · Prix Pierre Et Jean-marie Mercier Chase · 2m 1f 87y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Auteuil | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Auteuil | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Auteuil | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-10-18 | Auteuil | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 35/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength62%
Delivery trend -11.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 28/03/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 17/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 82% | +0.19 |