4
Mon Millesime
4yo Gelding · 10-7
Auteuil · Prix Pierre Et Jean-marie Mercier Chase · 2m 1f 87y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
21%
Place Prob
28%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Auteuil | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Auteuil | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Auteuil | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Auteuil | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Auteuil | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 38/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength32%
Delivery trend -13.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.30 |
| 02/04/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 19/04/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 93% | +0.77 |
| 08/09/2026 | 10th | 5/1 | 74% | 10% | -0.64 |