6
Ciel Mon Castor
4yo Filly · 10-10
Auteuil · Prix Sapin Chase · 2m 1f 87y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Dieppe | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Clairefontaine | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Dieppe | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Le Lion D'angers | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-23 | Compiegne | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-09 | Fontainebleau | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 87/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +16.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/03/2026 | 13th | 10/1 | 47% | 8% | -0.40 |
| 23/03/2026 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 50/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 10/06/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 92% | +0.65 |
| 29/06/2026 | 13th | 20/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 30/08/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |