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3

Launceston

4yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 9 · OR 53

Brighton · Matchbook Signup - Get 20% Back On Losses Apprentice Handicap (Hands And Heels) · 1m 1f 207y

#3

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Stepped up with each run for this yard, off the mark in classified company at Ffos Las in August (1m) and followed that with a good third at Bath upped to this trip back in handicap company. Can get involved again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength61%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Taunton 30/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 2m104y Gd 154 · HIGHER CLASS30/1244 @ Wincanton 15/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 1m7f50y Sft 149 · HIGHER CLASS6 @ Wolverhampton 02/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 51 · 1m1f104y Std 121 · below its mark02/02/2026 · OR 51 par2/026OR 515 @ Hereford 12/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 78 · 2m3f147y Goo 142 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/05/2026 · OR 78 par6 @ Windsor 01/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 48 · 1m3f99y GF 128 · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 48 par1/066OR 486 @ Brighton 07/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 47 · 1m1f207y GF 135 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Lingfield 13/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 47 · 1m1y Std 135 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 47 par13/076OR 476 @ Ffos Las 28/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 46 · 1m GS 135 · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Bath 13/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 53 · 1m2f37y Gd 138 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 53 par13/096OR 53projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Bath63rd3rd0
2026-08-28Ffos Las61st1st0
2026-07-13Lingfield64th4th0
2026-07-07Brighton64th4th0
2026-06-01Windsor67th7th0
2026-05-12Hereford56th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/1212/0513/0713/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 85/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +0.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/12/20257th250/10%40%+0.40
15/01/20269th125/10%27%+0.27
02/02/20269th125/10%0%0.00
12/05/20266th100/10%29%+0.29
01/06/20267th125/10%33%+0.33
07/07/20264th11/142%50%+0.08
13/07/20264th18/15%63%+0.57
28/08/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
13/09/20263rd9/276%82%+0.06