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3yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 6 · OR 51

Brighton · Matchbook Signup - Get 20% Back On Losses Apprentice Handicap (Hands And Heels) · 1m 1f 207y

#4

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Had looked fairly limited for a while but cranked it up a notch when springing a surprise in 10-runner handicap at Epsom in August. Found the going tougher back against the 3-y-os at Lingfield 4 weeks ago but now returns to open company.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Carlisle 04/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 63 · 7f173y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/08/2025 · OR 63 par4/085OR 636 @ Leicester 09/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 59 · 7f Goo 134 · beat its mark09/09/2025 · OR 59 par6 @ Kempton 25/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 55 · 7f Sta 135 · beat its mark25/02/2026 · OR 55 par25/026OR 556 @ Lingfield 05/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 55 · 1m2f Std 133 · beat its mark05/03/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Kempton 30/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 53 · 1m3f219y Sta 123 · beat its mark30/03/2026 · OR 53 par30/036OR 536 @ Yarmouth 28/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 52 · 1m2f23y Gd 132 · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Lingfield 01/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 50 · 1m2f Goo 127 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 50 par1/086OR 506 @ Epsom Downs 14/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 48 · 1m2f17y Goo 120 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Lingfield 10/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 51 · 1m2f Std 126 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 51 par10/096OR 51projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Lingfield66th6th0
2026-08-14Epsom Downs61st1st0
2026-08-01Lingfield63rd3rd0
2026-04-28Yarmouth69th9th0
2026-03-30Kempton610th10th0
2026-03-05Lingfield63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/085/031/0810/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength98%

Delivery trend -1.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/08/20255th20/10%0%0.00
09/09/20255th40/10%43%+0.43
25/02/20266th28/10%50%+0.50
05/03/20263rd28/10%67%+0.67
30/03/202610th40/10%10%+0.10
28/04/20269th18/15%11%+0.06
01/08/20263rd11/142%60%+0.18
14/08/20261st22/10%100%+1.00
10/09/20266th3/184%44%-0.40