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7

Birkie Boy

5yo Gelding · 9-1 · Draw 6 · OR 51

Brighton · Follow Matchbook On X Handicap · 7f 216y

#8

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has paid his way at Les Landes again this summer, winning twice but he's normally opposable in races on the mainland.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Kempton 13/12/2023 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 48 · 7f Sta 123 · beat its mark13/12/2023 · OR 48 par13/126OR 486 @ Lingfield 14/01/2024 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 47 · 7f1y Std 127 · beat its mark14/01/2024 · OR 47 par6 @ Kempton 03/02/2024 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 46 · 7f Sta 126 · beat its mark03/02/2024 · OR 46 par3/026OR 466 @ Wolverhampton 16/02/2024 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 48 · 7f36y Std 128 · beat its mark16/02/2024 · OR 48 par6 @ Kempton 17/04/2024 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 48 · 7f Sta 125 · beat its mark17/04/2024 · OR 48 par17/046OR 486 @ Bath 06/05/2024 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 46 · 5f160y Goo 126 · beat its mark06/05/2024 · OR 46 par6 @ Brighton 07/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 48 · 7f216y Goo 126 · beat its mark07/10/2025 · OR 48 par7/106OR 486 @ Brighton 16/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 48 · 6f210y Goo 123 · beat its mark16/10/2025 · OR 48 par6 @ Wolverhampton 27/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 47 · 1m142y Std 128 · beat its mark27/10/2025 · OR 47 par27/106OR 47projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-10-27Wolverhampton68th8th0
2025-10-16Brighton64th4th0
2025-10-07Brighton64th4th0
2024-05-06Bath68th8th0
2024-04-17Kempton612th12th0
2024-02-16Wolverhampton69th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/1216/027/1027/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 2-10 · tight 40/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength24%

Delivery trend +2.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/12/202312th14/126%8%-0.18
14/01/20246th8/158%44%-0.13
03/02/20242nd25/10%88%+0.88
16/02/20249th15/261%11%-0.49
17/04/202412th33/10%8%+0.08
06/05/20248th16/116%22%+0.06
07/10/20254th66/10%63%+0.63
16/10/20254th50/10%77%+0.77
27/10/20258th9/153%0%-0.53