8
Celtic Spirit
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 5 · OR 50
Brighton · Follow Matchbook On X Handicap · 7f 216y
#9
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Lingfield | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Epsom Downs | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Lingfield | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Windsor | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Lingfield | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Leicester | 6 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 2-10 · tight 40/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength41%
Delivery trend -6.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10/2025 | 4th | 80/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 06/11/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/12/2025 | 5th | 200/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 25/04/2026 | 14th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/05/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 29/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 14/08/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 03/09/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |