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6

King of The Dance

7yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 9 · OR 52

Brighton · Follow Matchbook On X Handicap · 7f 216y

#1

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

25%

Place Prob

33%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Kept busy this year and off the mark for the season at Ffos Las last month, all out. Not in the same form under a penalty despite finishing third back there last week.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Chepstow 29/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 52 · 7f16y Goo 122 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 52 par29/056OR 526 @ Chepstow 06/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 50 · 1m14y Sft 130 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Ffos Las 30/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 49 · 7f80y Goo 135 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 49 par30/066OR 496 @ Ffos Las 28/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 49 · 1m Goo 135 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Ffos Las 12/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 48 · 1m Gd 128 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 48 par12/086OR 486 @ Ffos Las 21/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 46 · 1m2f Gd 135 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Ffos Las 28/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 50 · 1m GS 135 · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 50 par28/086OR 506 @ Ffos Las 21/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 50 · 1m Sft 130 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Ffos Las 27/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 50 · 1m Sft 131 · beat its mark27/09/2026 · OR 50 par27/096OR 50projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-27Ffos Las63rd3rd0
2026-09-21Ffos Las61st1st0
2026-08-28Ffos Las63rd3rd0
2026-08-21Ffos Las64th4th0
2026-08-12Ffos Las66th6th0
2026-07-28Ffos Las63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0528/0728/0827/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 81/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.1% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/05/20264th13/266%67%+0.01
06/06/20265th10/382%50%-0.32
30/06/20262nd6/492%86%-0.06
28/07/20263rd11/486%67%-0.19
12/08/20266th7/282%44%-0.37
21/08/20264th16/116%67%+0.51
28/08/20263rd11/271%71%+0.00
21/09/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
27/09/20263rd13/266%78%+0.12