11
Outrace
6yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 1 · OR 45
Brighton · Follow Matchbook On X Handicap · 7f 216y
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Brighton | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Salisbury | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-03 | Southwell | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-11-25 | Lingfield | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-10-31 | Southwell | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-10-01 | Kempton | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 6-10 · tight 70/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength4%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 05/05/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.30 |
| 14/08/2025 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 01/10/2025 | 10th | 17/2 | 55% | 0% | -0.55 |
| 31/10/2025 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 25/11/2025 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 03/01/2026 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |