Panama Black
4yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 7 · OR 59
Brighton · Follow Matchbook On X Handicap · 7f 216y
#4
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | Lingfield | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-04-14 | Lingfield | 4 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-03-24 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-02-28 | Southwell | 4 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-02-24 | Southwell | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-01-30 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 29/06/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 44% | -0.37 |
| 23/07/2025 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 13% | -0.72 |
| 30/01/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 24/02/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 28/02/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 80% | +0.38 |
| 24/03/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 14/04/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 18/05/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |