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5

Scarfo

5yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 11 · OR 54

Brighton · Follow Matchbook On X Handicap · 7f 216y

#3

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won at Chepstow in June and has pretty much held his form since, sticking on at the one pace when fifth on heavy ground at Ffos Las last week.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength61%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Chepstow 06/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 45 · 1m14y Sft 126 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 45 par6/066OR 456 @ Chepstow 15/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 48 · 1m14y Gd 128 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Ffos Las 23/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 48 · 1m Gd 131 · beat its mark23/06/2026 · OR 48 par23/066OR 486 @ Chepstow 16/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 48 · 7f16y GF 128 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Chepstow 09/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 49 · 1m14y GF 131 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 49 par9/086OR 496 @ Chepstow 18/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 49 · 1m14y GF 119 · beat its mark18/08/2026 · OR 49 par2 @ Chepstow 31/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 48 · 1m14y Goo 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 48 par31/082OR 486 @ Ffos Las 21/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 55 · 1m Sft 135 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Ffos Las 27/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 55 · 1m Sft 132 · beat its mark27/09/2026 · OR 55 par27/096OR 55projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-27Ffos Las65th5th0
2026-09-21Ffos Las64th4th0
2026-08-31Chepstow23rd-2th+4
2026-08-18Chepstow63rd3rd0
2026-08-09Chepstow66th6th0
2026-07-16Chepstow62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0616/0731/0827/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 57/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength80%

Delivery trend -3.4% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/06/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
15/06/20263rd5/174%78%+0.04
23/06/20262nd13/266%89%+0.23
16/07/20262nd9/153%91%+0.38
09/08/20266th11/271%55%-0.17
18/08/20263rd7/163%71%+0.08
31/08/20263rd40/10%87%+0.87
21/09/20264th7/282%63%-0.19
27/09/20265th5/174%50%-0.24