3
South Kensington
5yo Mare · 9-7 · Draw 4 · OR 57
Brighton · Follow Matchbook On X Handicap · 7f 216y
#6
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength47%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Redcar | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lingfield | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Southwell | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 50/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength63%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/03/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 28/03/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 55% | +0.07 |
| 11/04/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.12 |
| 11/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 92% | +0.29 |
| 21/05/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 01/06/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 30/07/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 10/09/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 90% | +0.35 |
| 23/09/2026 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 18% | -0.40 |