10
Turpin
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 2 · OR 46
Brighton · Follow Matchbook On X Handicap · 7f 216y
#7
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 7.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Lingfield | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Brighton | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Lingfield | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Yarmouth | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Lingfield | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Epsom Downs | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 4-10 · tight 57/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength26%
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 64% | +0.22 |
| 19/05/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 09/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 01/07/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 28/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 18/08/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 55% | -0.27 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 12/09/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |