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2

Basilette

7yo Mare · 9-9 · Draw 8 · OR 55

Brighton · Bet 20 Pound Get 40 Pound In Free Bets At matchbook.com Handicap · 1m 3f 198y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

14%

Place Prob

20%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Not the most straightforward but was an emphatic winner at Bath (11.5f) in May. Also successful over hurdles during the summer and runner-up back on the Flat the last twice, clear of the rest when edged out latest.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength66%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Salisbury 03/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 49 · 1m6f44y GF 119 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 49 par3/056OR 496 @ Bath 13/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 49 · 1m3f137y Fm 130 · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Bath 22/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 48 · 1m6f Goo 127 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 48 par22/056OR 486 @ Bath 13/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 54 · 1m3f137y Gd 135 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 54 par5 @ Stratford 29/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 100 · 2m70y Goo 168 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/06/2026 · OR 100 par29/065OR 1005 @ Stratford 12/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 99 · 2m2f148y GF 165 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 99 par5 @ Stratford 19/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 99 · 2m2f148y GF 173 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/07/2026 · OR 99 par19/075OR 996 @ Salisbury 21/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 52 · 1m6f44y Goo 131 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Bath 02/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 53 · 1m6f Goo 133 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 53 par2/096OR 53projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Bath62nd2nd0
2026-08-21Salisbury62nd2nd0
2026-07-19Stratford53rd2nd+1
2026-07-12Stratford51st0th+1
2026-06-29Stratford54th3rd+1
2026-06-13Bath66th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0513/0619/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength71%

Delivery trend -1.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/05/20263rd5/287%50%-0.37
13/05/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
22/05/20263rd5/287%78%-0.09
13/06/20266th5/287%58%-0.29
29/06/20264th15/261%77%+0.16
12/07/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
19/07/20263rd11/486%33%-0.52
21/08/20262nd10/382%80%-0.02
02/09/20262nd2/189%89%-0.01