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1

Bug Boy

10yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 1 · OR 55

Brighton · Bet 20 Pound Get 40 Pound In Free Bets At matchbook.com Handicap · 1m 3f 198y

#1

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

70%

Place Prob

45%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Had a good Brighton record down the years and he came with a storming late run to end a lengthy losing sequence over C&D last month, proving just too strong for Highland Harvey despite a typically slow start. Task is to back that up.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength59%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Southwell 14/03/2024 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 53 · 1m3f23y Std 133 · below its mark14/03/2024 · OR 53 par14/036OR 536 @ Chepstow 18/07/2024 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 67 · 1m2f Goo 137 · below its mark18/07/2024 · OR 67 par4 @ Brighton 08/08/2024 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 66 · 1m3f198y GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/08/2024 · OR 66 par8/084OR 664 @ Epsom Downs 26/08/2024 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 65 · 1m4f6y Goo 144 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/08/2024 · OR 65 par4 @ Chester 14/09/2024 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 64 · 1m4f63y Sft 147 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/09/2024 · OR 64 par14/094OR 646 @ Bath 13/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 60 · 1m3f137y GS 156 · beat its mark13/09/2025 · OR 60 par6 @ Chepstow 06/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 58 · 1m4f Sft 133 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 58 par6/066OR 586 @ Bath 15/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 57 · 1m3f137y Fm 139 · below its mark15/07/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Brighton 01/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 54 · 1m3f198y Goo 134 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 54 par1/096OR 54projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Brighton61st1st0
2026-07-15Bath67th7th0
2026-06-06Chepstow66th6th0
2025-09-13Bath65th5th0
2024-09-14Chester44th2nd+2
2024-08-26Epsom Downs48th6th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0326/086/061/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 80/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/03/20248th16/116%0%-0.16
18/07/20249th50/10%33%+0.33
08/08/20243rd25/10%71%+0.71
26/08/20248th20/10%22%+0.22
14/09/20244th25/10%67%+0.67
13/09/20255th14/126%64%+0.37
06/06/20266th14/126%38%+0.11
15/07/20267th28/10%14%+0.14
01/09/20261st22/10%100%+1.00