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Berning Hot

4yo Filly · 9-7 · Draw 5 · OR 58

Brighton · Matchbook Monthly Bet-Builder Rebate Handicap · 6f 210y

#1

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

96%

Place Prob

80%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Shaped better than the result over C&D in August and off the mark for the season back here 19 days later. Continued the very good work when second returned to 1m at Lingfield (all-weather) and no reason why she won't get involved again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength55%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Kempton 28/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 59 · 1m 135 · beat its mark28/01/2026 · OR 59 par28/016OR 596 @ Kempton 04/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 59 · 1m Sta 134 · below its mark04/02/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Southwell 23/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 57 · 7f14y Std 127 · beat its mark23/04/2026 · OR 57 par23/046OR 576 @ Kempton 06/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 56 · 1m Sta 135 · beat its mark06/05/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Beverley 27/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 57 · 1m100y Goo 132 · below its mark27/05/2026 · OR 57 par27/056OR 575 @ Sandown 23/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 57 · 1m Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Brighton 05/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 55 · 6f210y Goo 134 · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 55 par5/086OR 556 @ Brighton 24/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 53 · 6f210y Goo 133 · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Lingfield 12/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 57 · 1m1y Std 135 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 57 par12/096OR 57projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Lingfield62nd2nd0
2026-08-24Brighton61st1st0
2026-08-05Brighton65th5th0
2026-07-23Sandown510th9th+1
2026-05-27Beverley66th6th0
2026-05-06Kempton62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/016/055/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 57/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength89%

Delivery trend +2.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/01/20263rd33/10%75%+0.75
04/02/20268th20/10%13%+0.13
23/04/20266th33/10%38%+0.38
06/05/20262nd10/147%88%+0.40
27/05/20266th12/137%17%-0.20
23/07/202610th33/10%18%+0.18
05/08/20265th5/174%50%-0.24
24/08/20261st22/10%100%+1.00
12/09/20262nd18/15%86%+0.80