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Havana Halo

4yo Filly · 9-9 · Draw 10 · OR 60

Brighton · Matchbook Monthly Bet-Builder Rebate Handicap · 6f 210y

#7

Rank

Odds

22/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Low-mileage filly who posted her best effort of the season when second of 5 in 6f handicap at Windsor in April. Could manage only mid-field over the same C&D a month later and cheekpieces are now reached for eased in class.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength65%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 11/04/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 7f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS11/0444 @ Windsor 12/05/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 6f12y GF 125 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Haydock 22/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 6f212y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS22/0545 @ Kempton 06/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 70 · 7f Sta 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/08/2025 · OR 70 par5 @ Southwell 07/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 69 · 7f14y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/10/2025 · OR 69 par7/105OR 695 @ Newbury 23/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 68 · 7f Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/06/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Lingfield 13/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 65 · 6f1y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 65 par13/075OR 655 @ Windsor 03/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 62 · 6f12y GF 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 62 par5 @ Windsor 07/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 62 · 6f12y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 62 par7/095OR 62projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Windsor57th6th+1
2026-08-03Windsor52nd1st+1
2026-07-13Lingfield56th5th+1
2026-06-23Newbury511th10th+1
2025-10-07Southwell57th6th+1
2025-08-06Kempton54th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/046/0813/077/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 5-10 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength11%

Delivery trend -1.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/04/20255th28/10%56%+0.56
12/05/20255th16/116%64%+0.48
22/05/20256th16/116%0%-0.16
06/08/20254th11/588%57%-0.31
07/10/20257th33/10%33%+0.33
23/06/202611th40/10%9%+0.09
13/07/20266th20/10%17%+0.17
03/08/20262nd7/282%75%-0.07
07/09/20267th20/10%50%+0.50