4
Havana Mojito
5yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 9 · OR 55
Brighton · Matchbook Monthly Bet-Builder Rebate Handicap · 6f 210y
#2
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#2
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Redcar | 6 | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Brighton | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Doncaster | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Brighton | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Brighton | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Brighton | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 3-8 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength53%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11/2025 | 12th | 22/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 29/04/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 57% | +0.15 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 29/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 90% | +0.03 |
| 22/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 88% | +0.05 |
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 90% | +0.01 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 05/08/2026 | 6th | 10/11 | 95% | 38% | -0.58 |
| 09/09/2026 | 16th | 22/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |