IvyArcIvyArc
5

Redredrobin

9yo Mare · 9-4 · Draw 7 · OR 55

Brighton · Matchbook Monthly Bet-Builder Rebate Handicap · 6f 210y

#3

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Losing run dates back over 2 years and more miss than hit in 2026, albeit one of her 2 runner-up efforts was gained over this C&D. Big price and dropped away on recent stable debut. Visor now fitted.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Epsom Downs 10/07/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 69 · 7f3y Gd 134 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/07/2025 · OR 69 par10/075OR 695 @ Bath 29/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 67 · 1m Fm 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/04/2026 · OR 67 par6 @ Chepstow 29/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 65 · 7f16y Goo 135 · below its mark29/05/2026 · OR 65 par29/056OR 655 @ Ffos Las 14/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 62 · 7f80y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/07/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Brighton 05/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 59 · 6f210y Goo 138 · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 59 par5/086OR 595 @ Wolverhampton 17/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 59 · 7f36y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Chepstow 29/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 58 · 7f16y Goo 128 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 58 par29/086OR 585 @ Epsom Downs 10/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 56 · 1m113y Goo 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Wolverhampton 28/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 55 · 1m1f104y Std 146 · below its mark28/09/2026 · OR 55 par28/096OR 55projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-28Wolverhampton610th10th0
2026-09-10Epsom Downs52nd1st+1
2026-08-29Chepstow66th6th0
2026-08-17Wolverhampton58th7th+1
2026-08-05Brighton62nd2nd0
2026-07-14Ffos Las59th8th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0714/0729/0828/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 29/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength52%

Delivery trend +7.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/07/20259th9/276%11%-0.65
29/04/20266th18/15%0%-0.05
29/05/20268th22/10%22%+0.22
14/07/20269th28/10%0%0.00
05/08/20262nd20/10%88%+0.88
17/08/20268th28/10%22%+0.22
29/08/20266th12/137%29%-0.08
10/09/20262nd16/116%88%+0.72
28/09/202610th100/10%0%0.00