5

Everydaysasaturday

3yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 4 · OR 52

Brighton · Play Your Multiples at matchbook.com Handicap · 5f 215y

#9

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Low-key starts in handicaps for Declan Carroll at up to 7f. Left that yard and interesting to see what Tony Carroll can do with him. Market will be useful.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▼1
Strength58%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 7.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Carlisle 25/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 5f182y Sft 130 · HIGHER CLASS25/0625 @ Beverley 05/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 5f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Pontefract 18/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 6f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS18/0744 @ Redcar 30/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 5f217y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Newcastle 21/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 61 · 6f Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/03/2026 · OR 61 par21/035OR 615 @ Southwell 02/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 59 · 7f14y Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/04/2026 · OR 59 par5 @ Southwell 07/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 57 · 7f14y Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 57 par7/055OR 576 @ Newcastle 19/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 54 · 5f Std 125 · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Thirsk 01/07/2026 · Pos 16th of 18 · OR 54 · 6f Goo 129 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 54 par1/076OR 54projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-01Thirsk616th16th0
2026-05-19Newcastle65th5th0
2026-05-07Southwell511th10th+1
2026-04-02Southwell57th6th+1
2026-03-21Newcastle56th5th+1
2025-07-30Redcar46th4th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0630/077/051/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 5-9 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength8%

Delivery trend -0.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/06/20255th100/10%0%0.00
05/07/20256th66/10%44%+0.44
18/07/20258th40/10%30%+0.30
30/07/20256th125/10%0%0.00
21/03/20266th5/174%17%-0.57
02/04/20267th22/10%0%0.00
07/05/202611th33/10%0%0.00
19/05/20265th16/116%64%+0.48
01/07/202616th33/10%12%+0.12