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3

Ken Brulee

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 5 · OR 53

Brighton · Play Your Multiples at matchbook.com Handicap · 5f 215y

#5

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fitted with cheekpieces when getting off the mark at Lingfield in May and returned to a similar level when making all at Chepstow (6f) in August. Unable to continue the good work twice since.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Bath 04/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 52 · 5f160y Gd 133 · below its mark04/05/2026 · OR 52 par4/056OR 526 @ Lingfield 26/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 49 · 6f Goo 129 · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Bath 05/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 55 · 5f160y Gd 133 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 55 par5/066OR 556 @ Lingfield 18/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 55 · 4f217y Goo 135 · below its mark18/06/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Chepstow 27/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 54 · 6f16y GF 126 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 54 par27/066OR 546 @ Chepstow 08/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 52 · 7f16y GF 127 · below its mark08/07/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Chepstow 09/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 50 · 6f16y GF 130 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 50 par9/086OR 506 @ Bath 02/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 54 · 5f160y Goo 132 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Bath 13/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 54 · 5f10y GS 133 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 54 par13/096OR 54projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Bath610th10th0
2026-09-02Bath65th5th0
2026-08-09Chepstow61st1st0
2026-07-08Chepstow66th6th0
2026-06-27Chepstow63rd3rd0
2026-06-18Lingfield64th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0518/069/0813/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 3-9 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength13%

Delivery trend -3.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/05/202610th22/10%0%0.00
26/05/20261st33/10%100%+1.00
05/06/20267th7/282%25%-0.57
18/06/20264th3/184%0%-0.84
27/06/20263rd7/163%60%-0.03
08/07/20266th16/116%0%-0.16
09/08/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
02/09/20265th9/153%43%-0.10
13/09/202610th9/153%25%-0.28