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4

My Mate Mackley

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 7 · OR 53

Brighton · Play Your Multiples at matchbook.com Handicap · 5f 215y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

99%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Usual cheekpieces back on and proved better than ever when winning 8-runner handicap over C&D 8 days ago by length from Candy Warhol. That was a third win and this consistent sort is a must for the shortlist.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Southwell 23/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 47 · 4f214y Std 127 · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 47 par23/076OR 476 @ Wolverhampton 30/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 47 · 5f21y Std 128 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Chepstow 09/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 47 · 6f16y GF 127 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 47 par9/086OR 476 @ Lingfield 13/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 47 · 6f1y Std 131 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Yarmouth 14/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 47 · 6f3y GF 137 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 47 par14/086OR 475 @ Brighton 01/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 54 · 5f60y Goo 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Windsor 07/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 54 · 5f21y Goo 135 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 54 par7/096OR 546 @ Southwell 22/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 53 · 6f16y Std 128 · beat its mark22/09/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Brighton 28/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 53 · 5f215y Goo 126 · beat its mark28/09/2026 · OR 53 par28/096OR 53projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-28Brighton61st1st0
2026-09-22Southwell64th4th0
2026-09-07Windsor64th4th0
2026-09-01Brighton52nd1st+1
2026-08-14Yarmouth63rd3rd0
2026-08-13Lingfield61st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0713/087/0928/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 80/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength94%

Delivery trend +1.6% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/07/20262nd9/488%83%-0.05
30/07/20264th11/486%57%-0.28
09/08/20262nd4/179%86%+0.07
13/08/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
14/08/20263rd7/282%75%-0.07
01/09/20262nd5/174%80%+0.06
07/09/20264th5/174%70%-0.04
22/09/20264th4/179%73%-0.06
28/09/20261st15/890%100%+0.10