IvyArcIvyArc
10

Real Gold

3yo Filly · 8-13 · Draw 2 · OR 45

Brighton · Play Your Multiples at matchbook.com Handicap · 5f 215y

#8

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Third at Kempton in March but little to recommend since, albeit latest Lingfield run isn't a race to judge her harshly on.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength32%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Lingfield 21/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 56 · 6f1y Std 131 · beat its mark21/01/2026 · OR 56 par21/016OR 566 @ Lingfield 07/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 54 · 6f1y Std 127 · beat its mark07/02/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Lingfield 21/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 52 · 6f1y Std 123 · beat its mark21/02/2026 · OR 52 par21/026OR 526 @ Kempton 02/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 52 · 6f Sta 127 · beat its mark02/03/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Lingfield 15/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR 52 · 4f217y GF 127 · below its mark15/07/2026 · OR 52 par15/076OR 526 @ Epsom Downs 30/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 51 · 7f3y GF 121 · below its mark30/07/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Lingfield 13/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 50 · 6f1y Std 131 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 50 par13/086OR 506 @ Lingfield 27/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 48 · 7f1y Std 123 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Lingfield 12/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 46 · 7f1y Std 116 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 46 par12/096OR 46projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Lingfield64th4th0
2026-08-27Lingfield68th8th0
2026-08-13Lingfield66th6th0
2026-07-30Epsom Downs67th7th0
2026-07-15Lingfield63rd3rd0
2026-03-02Kempton63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/012/0313/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 3-9 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength15%

Delivery trend -1.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/01/20264th25/10%50%+0.50
07/02/20263rd20/10%50%+0.50
21/02/20263rd16/116%67%+0.51
02/03/20263rd9/153%75%+0.22
15/07/20263rd7/282%0%-0.82
30/07/20267th66/10%0%0.00
13/08/20266th28/10%29%+0.29
27/08/20268th66/10%30%+0.30
12/09/20264th50/10%57%+0.57