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3yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 8 · OR 55

Brighton · Play Your Multiples at matchbook.com Handicap · 5f 215y

#7

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Is 0-15 and latest Windsor run was a big backward step after finishing placed on 4 of 5 starts prior to that. This is the weakest band of handicap he's contested, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength73%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 7.7)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Kempton 07/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 64 · 6f Sta 134 · below its mark07/01/2026 · OR 64 par7/016OR 646 @ Kempton 01/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 62 · 6f Sta 132 · below its mark01/04/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Nottingham 26/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR 60 · 6f18y Goo 135 · below its mark26/04/2026 · OR 60 par26/046OR 605 @ Windsor 04/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 60 · 5f21y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Salisbury 14/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 57 · 6f Goo 132 · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 57 par14/056OR 576 @ Chepstow 21/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 60 · 5f16y GS 135 · below its mark21/05/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Salisbury 09/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 59 · 6f Sft 130 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 59 par9/066OR 595 @ Lingfield 15/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 58 · 5f6y Std 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 58 par5 @ Windsor 07/09/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 57 · 6f12y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 57 par7/095OR 57projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Windsor512th11th+1
2026-08-15Lingfield53rd2nd+1
2026-06-09Salisbury63rd3rd0
2026-05-21Chepstow65th5th0
2026-05-14Salisbury62nd2nd0
2026-05-04Windsor53rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/014/059/067/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 2-9 · tight 43/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength35%

Delivery trend +0.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/01/20269th10/147%20%-0.27
01/04/20268th14/126%22%-0.04
26/04/202612th8/158%21%-0.36
04/05/20263rd18/15%78%+0.73
14/05/20262nd15/261%93%+0.32
21/05/20265th9/276%0%-0.76
09/06/20263rd11/271%80%+0.09
15/08/20263rd10/147%33%-0.14
07/09/202612th18/15%8%+0.03