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8

Valadero

5yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 9 · OR 49

Brighton · Play Your Multiples at matchbook.com Handicap · 5f 215y

#4

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Belatedly off the mark in a 7f classified event at this track in August. Sound-enough second at that level back over 6f at Yarmouth but slightly more on his plate returned to a handicap.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 20/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 53 · 7f36y Std 133 · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 53 par20/096OR 536 @ Wolverhampton 22/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 53 · 7f36y Std 133 · beat its mark22/09/2025 · OR 53 par6 @ Chelmsford City 16/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 53 · 7f Std 134 · beat its mark16/10/2025 · OR 53 par16/106OR 536 @ Kempton 17/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 52 · 6f Sta 132 · beat its mark17/12/2025 · OR 52 par6 @ Lingfield 10/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 50 · 7f1y Std 135 · beat its mark10/01/2026 · OR 50 par10/016OR 506 @ Lingfield 12/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 50 · 1m1y Std 135 · beat its mark12/01/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Yarmouth 26/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 48 · 6f3y GF 135 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 48 par26/066OR 486 @ Brighton 06/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 48 · 6f210y Goo 135 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Yarmouth 14/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 49 · 6f3y GF 135 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 49 par14/086OR 49projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-14Yarmouth62nd2nd0
2026-08-06Brighton61st1st0
2026-06-26Yarmouth63rd3rd0
2026-01-12Lingfield68th8th0
2026-01-10Lingfield67th7th0
2025-12-17Kempton66th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0917/1226/0614/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength89%

Delivery trend +5.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/09/20252nd4/179%89%+0.10
22/09/20255th11/893%56%-0.37
16/10/202510th7/282%25%-0.57
17/12/20256th9/276%50%-0.26
10/01/20267th6/168%14%-0.54
12/01/20268th22/10%30%+0.30
26/06/20263rd2/189%60%-0.29
06/08/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
14/08/20262nd7/282%88%+0.06