4
Alkuwarrior
3yo Gelding · 9-5 · Draw 5 · OR 65
Brighton · Download The Matchbook Exchange App Handicap · 5f 60y
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength47%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Leicester | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Ffos Las | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Chepstow | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Windsor | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Windsor | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 2-9 · tight 43/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength44%
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/05/2026 | 14th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 27/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 27/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 21/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 07/09/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 21/09/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 45% | +0.30 |