2
Cayman Tai
4yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 1 · OR 67
Brighton · Download The Matchbook Exchange App Handicap · 5f 60y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength54%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Southwell | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | Sandown | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Epsom Downs | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Newmarket | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-08-07 | Brighton | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-25 | York | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 30/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength55%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 75% | -0.21 |
| 12/06/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 30/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 25/07/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 07/08/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 15/08/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 31/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 11/09/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 13% | -0.61 |
| 24/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |