5
Dontspoilasale
6yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 7 · OR 62
Brighton · Download The Matchbook Exchange App Handicap · 5f 60y
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Kempton | 6 | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-08-20 | Lingfield | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Brighton | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Windsor | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Lingfield | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-01 | Dundalk | BHA74 | 6th | 9th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 5-9 · tight 67/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength2%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 43% | -0.41 |
| 20/03/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 27/03/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 50% | -0.05 |
| 01/04/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 55% | +0.39 |
| 06/07/2026 | 7th | 125/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 20/07/2026 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 06/08/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/08/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 23/09/2026 | 11th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |