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9

Roman Spring

6yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 6 · OR 50

Brighton · Download The Matchbook Exchange App Handicap · 5f 60y

#2

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

8%

Place Prob

21%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform
5lbs

Commentary

Back to front-running tactics when landing 11-runner handicap at Windsor and had the race sewn up a fair way out when following up over C&D last week. Penalty makes life harder but dangerous if getting into another nice rhythm.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength40%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Brighton 09/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 55 · 5f60y Gd 120 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 55 par9/065OR 555 @ Newbury 23/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 53 · 6f Goo 125 · beat its mark23/06/2026 · OR 53 par5 @ Newbury 09/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 52 · 6f GF 124 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 52 par9/075OR 526 @ Salisbury 21/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 50 · 5f Goo 130 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Lingfield 08/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 48 · 6f1y Std 135 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 48 par8/086OR 486 @ Lingfield 13/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 46 · 6f1y Std 135 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Lingfield 22/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 46 · 5f6y Std 126 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 46 par22/086OR 466 @ Windsor 07/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 47 · 5f21y Goo 129 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Brighton 28/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 50 · 5f60y Goo 126 · beat its mark28/09/2026 · OR 50 par28/096OR 50projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-28Brighton61st2nd−1
2026-09-07Windsor61st2nd−1
2026-08-22Lingfield62nd3rd−1
2026-08-13Lingfield64th5th−1
2026-08-08Lingfield65th6th−1
2026-07-21Salisbury64th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0621/0722/0828/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength94%

Delivery trend +1.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/06/20267th11/142%14%-0.28
23/06/20263rd18/15%82%+0.77
09/07/202612th16/116%0%-0.16
21/07/20264th13/266%57%-0.09
08/08/20265th11/271%56%-0.15
13/08/20264th7/282%57%-0.24
22/08/20262nd9/276%86%+0.09
07/09/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
28/09/20261st4/179%100%+0.21