IvyArcIvyArc
3

Zoustar Dreams

3yo Filly · 9-7 · Draw 9 · OR 67

Brighton · Download The Matchbook Exchange App Handicap · 5f 60y

#3

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Registered a third success of 2026 at Nottingham (5f) in July but seemed anchored by revised mark in a quartet of starts since on turf/all-weather. Way she stuck to it at Sandown 3 weeks ago suggests this sharp 5f may not be ideal.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 19/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 60 · 5f Std 131 · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 60 par19/056OR 606 @ Catterick 30/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 57 · 5f212y GF 135 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Lingfield 06/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR 63 · 4f217y Sft 138 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 63 par6/066OR 635 @ Newmarket 20/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 66 · 6f Goo 131 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Nottingham 18/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 66 · 5f8y Goo 132 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 66 par18/075OR 665 @ Ripon 03/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 71 · 5f Goo 132 · below its mark03/08/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Yarmouth 14/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 71 · 5f42y GF 134 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 71 par14/085OR 715 @ Kempton 02/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 70 · 6f Sta 138 · below its mark02/09/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Sandown 16/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 68 · 5f10y Goo 135 · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 68 par16/095OR 68projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Sandown53rd3rd0
2026-09-02Kempton56th6th0
2026-08-14Yarmouth54th4th0
2026-08-03Ripon54th4th0
2026-07-18Nottingham51st1st0
2026-06-20Newmarket54th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0520/0614/0816/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 2-9 · tight 43/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength47%

Delivery trend -4.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/05/20267th13/266%45%-0.20
30/05/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
06/06/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
20/06/20264th11/142%63%+0.20
18/07/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
03/08/20264th10/382%25%-0.57
14/08/20264th10/147%40%-0.07
02/09/20266th5/174%17%-0.57
16/09/20263rd6/168%78%+0.09