2
Came Up Roses
5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 2 · OR 50
Fairmount Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Hawthorne | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 4-7 · tight 68/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength9%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 15/01/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 05/02/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 15/03/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/04/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 03/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 24/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 25/06/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 18/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |