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5

Passing Passion

5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 54

Fairmount Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

6/5

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

86%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼2
Strength79%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Fairmount Park 09/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 39 · 6f 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/09/2025 · OR 39 par9/09C6OR 39C6 @ Fairmount Park 30/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 42 · 5f110y 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/09/2025 · OR 42 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 18/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 44 · 6f 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 44 par18/10C6OR 44C6 @ Fairmount Park 12/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 51 · 5f110y 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 51 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 02/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 54 · 6f 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/06/2026 · OR 54 par2/06C6OR 54C6 @ Fairmount Park 21/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 49 · 5f110y Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 49 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 04/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 53 · 6f 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 53 par4/08C6OR 53C6 @ Fairmount Park 25/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 52 · 1m 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 52 parC8 @ Fairmount Park 12/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 55 · 6f Fas 124 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 55 par12/09C8OR 55projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Fairmount Park?2nd2nd0
2026-08-25Fairmount Park?7th5th+2
2026-08-04Fairmount Park?6th4th+2
2026-07-21Fairmount Park?3rd1st+2
2026-06-02Fairmount Park?9th7th+2
2026-05-12Fairmount Park?2nd0th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0912/054/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 2-4 · tight 76/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength71%

Delivery trend -5.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/09/20251st10/382%100%+0.18
30/09/20254th16/116%50%+0.34
18/10/20255th10/147%33%-0.14
12/05/20262nd8/158%83%+0.25
02/06/20269th20/10%0%0.00
21/07/20263rd15/261%67%+0.06
04/08/20266th11/271%55%-0.17
25/08/20267th15/261%33%-0.27
12/09/20262nd13/891%86%-0.06