3
Bikini Martini
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 3 · OR 78
Fairmount Park · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Fairmount Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength73%
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 19/09/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 07/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 28/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 05/05/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 04/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 29/08/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 22% | -0.54 |
| 19/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |