6
Irish Spark
5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 6 · OR 67
Fairmount Park · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 3-6 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength14%
Delivery trend -5.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/2025 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 30/09/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 28/10/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 05/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 26/05/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 04/08/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 29/08/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 22/09/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |