Laly
5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 1 · OR 76
Fairmount Park · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-11-02 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 24/08/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 18/09/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 02/11/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 07/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 21/07/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 25/08/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |
| 19/09/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |