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3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 2 · OR 78

Fairmount Park · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

6/5

Win Prob

84%

Place Prob

60%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 2.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Hawthorne 15/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 4f110y Fas 11915/06C6C6 @ Hawthorne 10/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 70 · 4f110y Fas 119 · beat its mark10/07/2025 · OR 70 par10/07C6OR 70C6 @ Hawthorne 07/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 73 · 5f110y 120 · below its mark07/09/2025 · OR 73 par7/09C6OR 73C6 @ Hawthorne 07/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 69 · 6f 117 · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 69 par7/06C6OR 69C8 @ Hawthorne 21/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 69 · 5f110y Slo 118 · below its mark21/06/2026 · OR 69 par21/06C8OR 69C8 @ Hawthorne 19/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 65 · 6f Fas 119 · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 65 par19/07C8OR 65C6 @ Fairmount Park 26/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 73 · 5f110y Fas 118 · beat its mark26/09/2026 · OR 73 par26/09C6OR 73projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-26Fairmount Park?1st1st0
2026-07-19Hawthorne?1st3rd−2
2026-06-21Hawthorne?4th6th−2
2026-06-07Hawthorne?4th4th0
2025-09-07Hawthorne?3rd3rd0
2025-07-10Hawthorne?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/067/0626/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 81/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.6% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/06/20253rd7/282%60%-0.22
10/07/20251st13/891%100%+0.09
07/09/20253rd7/491%33%-0.57
07/06/20264th13/266%40%-0.26
21/06/20264th11/486%57%-0.28
19/07/20261st4/797%100%+0.03
26/09/20261st10/147%100%+0.53