4
Averyz Day
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 4 · OR 69
Fairmount Park · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲2
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-08-29 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-06-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 4-7 · tight 68/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/04/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 28/04/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 83% | -0.10 |
| 28/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 11/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 22/09/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |