Battle Cruiser

5yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 1 · OR 79

Fairmount Park · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 1m 6f

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▬

Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.2

Today:

Class gap: -0.7

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-04-27	Turf Paradise	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2026-04-15	Turf Paradise	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-03-17	Turf Paradise	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2026-02-26	Turf Paradise	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2026-02-10	Turf Paradise	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-01-13	Turf Paradise	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 34/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength47%

Delivery trend +9.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
21/06/2025	5th	15/8	90%	60%	-0.30
29/08/2025	5th	10/11	95%	0%	-0.95
22/12/2025	2nd	11/8	93%	83%	-0.09
13/01/2026	1st	9/4	88%	100%	+0.12
10/02/2026	7th	14/1	26%	33%	+0.07
26/02/2026	2nd	16/1	16%	88%	+0.72
17/03/2026	2nd	2/1	89%	75%	-0.14
15/04/2026	6th	10/1	47%	50%	+0.03
27/04/2026	2nd	10/1	47%	80%	+0.33