3
Lemon Drop Shot
8yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 3 · OR 87
Fairmount Park · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 1m 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 4-7 · tight 68/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength20%
Delivery trend -8.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 26/12/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 09/02/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 28/02/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 20/03/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 23/06/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 17% | -0.68 |
| 28/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 71% | -0.24 |
| 25/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 82% | -0.10 |
| 19/09/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |