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6

Two Hearted

5yo Mare · 8-9 · Draw 6 · OR 89

Fairmount Park · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 1m 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength46%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Churchill Downs 15/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 86 · 1m 121 · below its mark15/11/2025 · OR 86 par15/11C7OR 86C6 @ Fairmount Park 14/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 90 · 5f110y Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/04/2026 · OR 90 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 05/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 86 · 6f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/05/2026 · OR 86 par5/05C6OR 86C6 @ Fairmount Park 26/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 83 · 6f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 83 parC5 @ Hawthorne 11/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 82 · 1m 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 82 par11/06C5OR 82C7 @ Fairmount Park 07/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 81 · 1m 126 · below its mark07/07/2026 · OR 81 parC7 @ Fairmount Park 11/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 77 · 6f Fas 126 · below its mark11/08/2026 · OR 77 par11/08C7OR 77C7 @ Fairmount Park 25/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 93 · 1m4f 121 · below its mark25/08/2026 · OR 93 parC7 @ Fairmount Park 15/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 92 · 1m5f 121 · below its mark15/09/2026 · OR 92 par15/09C7OR 92projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Fairmount Park?2nd2nd0
2026-08-25Fairmount Park?2nd2nd0
2026-08-11Fairmount Park?3rd3rd0
2026-07-07Fairmount Park?2nd2nd0
2026-06-11Hawthorne?1st-1th+2
2026-05-26Fairmount Park?2nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/1126/0511/0815/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 48/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength62%

Delivery trend -6.5% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/11/20255th50/10%60%+0.60
14/04/20262nd14/126%83%+0.57
05/05/20265th5/174%33%-0.40
26/05/20262nd15/261%83%+0.23
11/06/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
07/07/20262nd5/174%83%+0.10
11/08/20263rd8/1196%60%-0.36
25/08/20262nd10/382%83%+0.01
15/09/20262nd5/174%80%+0.06