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3yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 4 · OR 59
Fairmount Park · Race 6 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Ellis Park | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2026-08-11 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-06-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/04/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 12/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 26/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 21/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 11/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 21/08/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/09/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |